Some have already taken an early gamble planting into cooler than optimal soil conditions hoping to grow a fast forage crop on their available moisture, and with luck, get an early grazing or baling opportunity.

“I’ve never seen as much activity at this time of year as we’ve had in the past month – demand has been unprecedented,” said Heritage Seeds NSW northern slopes and tablelands territory manager, Tony Stewart.

While forecasts were not promising much, there would be “a lot of sowing activity if we do get some more useful falls”.

“Millet’s gone in the ground earlier than ideal, especially given the risk of frosts still about,” he said.

“Some areas around Inverell and Warialda recorded at least 50 millimetres in the past month, so a few people are already pushing any (dryland planting) opportunity to the limit.”

Planters were also out on the Liverpool Plains, although soil temperatures for planting should preferably be 16 degrees and rising, not 14 or 15 degrees and potentially dipping again.

With old season cereal hay prices sitting between $500 a tonne and $600/t (on farm) on Queensland’s Darling Downs and in central NSW, and up to $700 on NSW’s North Coast, and lucerne peaking at $650/t to $750/t in northern and central NSW, farmers everywhere have been doing the sums on what to grow if they luck adequate spring rain.

However, many will need at least 100 millimetres of sowing rain to get bone dry paddocks capable of supporting a planting, with still no guarantee a crop finding moisture deep down.

Decisions have been hindered by shortages of forage millet seed – the earliest sowing option once temperatures hit 16 degrees.

Dry conditions last year constrained the millet seed harvest.

Yet while significant eastern Australian fodder and roughage supply shortages are set to continue into summer, irrigators are still likely to opt for cotton, not forage crops this year.

Most cotton growers have forward sale commitments already locked in, and generally cotton returns per megalitre still look healthier than growing forage crops.

Mr Stewart noted some would, however, plant forage sorghum if they were uneasy about accessing enough water for a full cotton season.

August-September plantings of forage brassica crops have been a genuinely useful grazing crop option for tablelands and slopes producers, said Auswest Seeds’ Armidale-based, Aaron Kemp.

After a such a poor year for winter grazing oats and ryegrass plantings, forage rape and turnips had already gone into some northern paddocks lucky enough to score sufficient planting rain, “and they’ll be beautiful for fattening lambs if we get a bit more rain”.

However, leafy brassicas lacked the fibre content generally needed for cattle feed.

“We’ve seen enough moisture to generate some optimism and trigger fodder seed sales, but we need a bit more and warmer weather to see it turn into a rush,” he said.  

A possible option for tablelands graziers was to make the most of existing improved pastures by applying 40 units a hectare of nitrogen fertiliser.

“If you do get rain and you’ve fertilised cocksfoot or ryegrass, or subtropical pastures, you could have reasonable feed within four weeks, which is faster than waiting 10 weeks for a forage crop to grow to a useful height,” he said.

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However seed suppliers have warned taking a punt on a one-off rain event to plant early millet, forage sorghum or sudan grass could also be expensive if soil moisture conditions were not sustainable or a late frost hit.

Sowing costs alone started at $40/ha for seed, plus fuel and equipment expenses.

GenTech Seeds summer forage seed lead, Rob Crothers, said the company’s area managers and consultants had been busy working with customers to ascertain their specific needs for its Pioneer range of seed products in eastern Australia.

“Demand for forage seed will likely continue to be very strong this season given the need for feed supplies, but we’re only just into spring and many regions with enough moisture profile to plant on now still need soil temperatures to rise,” he said.

Rising temperatures will also bring new season supplies of lucerne and some pasture hay and silage, plus failing winter grain crops for  the hungry feed market.

The first of those are now being baled.

“Hay will be cut in central and northern Victoria from now on, and quite a few wheat and barley crops are also unlikely to make it through to grain harvest in the Wimmera, Mallee and Riverina,” said Australian Fodder Industry Association executive officer, John McKew.

Uncertainty about what grain crops would become hay had stabilised fodder prices in recent weeks, making it harder for undecided forage croppers to gauge demand in coming months.

“A lot of factors, including late frosts on cereals, any useful rain in the next month, or irrigation water availability to finish crops, will impact on prices before summer,” he said.

“At the moment, however, the market’s pretty much reached a point of high-price resistance, even though there’s very little stock in supply.”

AFIA research showed cheapest pasture hay and straw prices (on farm) were generally between $350/t and $450/t across most of eastern Australia, although down to $120/t for straw in South Australia and as low as $80 to $150 for straw and pasture hay in WA.