The storm clouds in Canberra hovering over Prime Minister Julia Gillard's leadership manifested in physical form today with the annual Prime Minister's XI cricket match set to be cancelled due to rain.
Ms Gillard was battered for a fourth day by mounting speculation her hold on the Labor leadership is slipping.
A senior Labor source told Fairfax Media this week there had been a seismic shift in support away from Ms Gillard over the summer break with a portion of the backbench now backing former prime minister Kevin Rudd in the event of a leadership spill.
The Gillard Government failed to make up ground in the first Newspoll of the year, with its primary vote flatlining on 30 per cent and Ms Gillard ceding ground to Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, as preferred prime minister - though she still leads by a narrow margin of 3 percentage points.
The next Fairfax/Nielsen poll - published on Monday - will coincide with the first sitting day for the year and will come the day after Ms Gillard hosts her MPs at The Lodge on Sunday night.
A supporter of Ms Gillard said all eyes would be on the poll and that "we are praying for the high 30s".
"It is pretty dire when the best you can expect is well below 40 per cent but there you have it," the MP said. "If it dips back into the 20s then we have a real problem. Julia will have a real problem on her hands."
After campaigning at high profile events for Labor candidates standing in the Queensland election, Mr Rudd departed for Germany yesterday to attend the Munich Security Conference.
It means he will miss the extraordinary caucus meeting which will be held before the Sunday evening function at the Lodge. He will also miss Sunday's special caucus meeting, called by Ms Gillard to discuss the year ahead.
Despite predictions by the Opposition that Mr Rudd would bring on a challenge to Ms Gillard before the March 24 Queensland election, it is more likely that any confrontation would occur in May, when Parliament returns for the Budget sessions.
Parliament does not sit between late March and the May budget session but Rudd supporters were reported today as pointing to the possibility of a move when Parliament is in recess, based on the government's performance in the first sitting session and the polls.
A report in the Australian Financial Review quoted a Gillard supporter as saying there was now a sense of inevitability for a leadership showdown between Ms Gillard and Mr Rudd.
"It is clear to me that it has got to be brought to a head at some stage," said an MP who supports Ms Gillard. "It can't keep going the way it is at the moment."
The Minister for Defence, Stephen Smith - who is considered to be a possible third option in a ballot - said today that Ms Gillard was "doing a good job in tough circumstances."
Asked if he could rule himself out of the leadership race, Mr Smith told Sky News, "the leadership is not vacant".
There are signs within the government the ongoing speculation over the Labor leadership is taking its toll.
The Climate Change Minister, Greg Combet, lashed out yesterday after an unnamed factional boss loyal to Ms Gillard was reported in the Herald as saying Ms Gillard was in trouble.
"I lose patience with people who are talking to journalists and there's no name attached to it and you wonder who on earth it was," he said.
Mr Combet pointed to the challenges ahead of the government. "We understand the situation in the polls and the necessity to communicate our agenda successfully to the community and we'll work very hard to do it."
The Manufacturing Minister, Kim Carr - who was dumped from his role as Industry Minister in the December reshuffle and is thought to be now firmly in the Rudd camp - ducked questions yesterday over whether Ms Gillard would and should remain leader, saying: "This is stuff that's driven directly as a result of media speculation."
The Communications Minister, Stephen Conroy, said yesterday MPs were "on edge" and "nervous" because the government had taken "some tough policy decisions".
"People continue to underestimate how tough Julia Gillard is," he said. "We have had a string of tough decisions through last year: the carbon tax, the mining tax, we have seen the decision around poker machines where we couldn't get the numbers to get something through, so it is not surprising to see people are a little on edge because we have taken some tough decisions."
The Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott, said he believes a move by Mr Rudd is imminent.
"Look, all the signs are there. It is a very, very restless caucus," Mr Abbott told the Nine Network this morning.
"In the end it's up to the Labor Party to choose which failed leader it wants to take into the election."
Mr Abbott said he expected that to happen before the March 24 Queensland election campaign gets into full swing.
"My instinct is he'll make a move before the Queensland election because if Kevin is such a miracle worker in Queensland you'd think they'd want him there before the state election."
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